In the context of global climate change, agricultural threats are increasing due to extreme temperatures, signicantly
affecting crops. This study analyses historical trends in maximum summer temperatures across Chile’s central region,
encompassing Santiago, Curicó, Talca, Chillán, and Los Ángeles, and projects potential scenarios for 2024-2026. The
methodology involves climatological analysis and linear adjustments to quantify trends. Results indicate declining linear
trends in maximum summer temperatures in Santiago and Curicó, stable trends in Talca, and slight declines in Chillán.
At the same time, Los Ángeles indicated a notably steeper decrease in 20th century. Conversely, in the 21st century, Santiago,
Curicó, and Talca exhibit moderate positive slopes, indicating gradual increases, with Chillán and Los Ángeles displaying
more pronounced upward trends. Probability indicators underline the reliability of these temperature projections, ranging
from 54% to 66%. This study allows dening maximum critical temperature limits for the physiological development of
plants, and provides valuable information on the rate of desertication at the local level. This approach offers quantita–
tive evidence to support agro-economic development planning and health promotion in the context of persistent chal-
lenges arising from climate change.
Keywords: Extreme temperatures, Bioclimatic modeling, Lineal trends, Probability indicator, Climate projections